PUBLIC MANAGEMENT OF MULTIMODAL MODELS OF DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIAL SYSTEMS

Abstract

Several equations are constructed, in deriving which the authors proceed from the basic assumption that the ability of the population to migrate is a function of local levels of economic activity, which determine a kind of local “bearing capacity”, which in this case is reduced to employment. But the local population is at the same time a potential consumer of goods produced by local industry. Thus, in local development there is a double positive feedback, called “urban multiplier”: both the local population and the economic structure that has developed with the already achieved level of activity, contribute to its further increase. However, each local level of activity is determined by competition with similar centers of economic activity located elsewhere. Sales of manufactured products or services provided depend on the cost of transporting them to the consumer and the scale of the “enterprise”. The expansion of any enterprise is determined by the demand for a good or service, the production of which it promotes and for the production of which these enterprises compete with others. Thus, there is strong feedback and nonlinear relationships between relative population growth and productive activity or services. It is suggested that hypothetical initial conditions under which (agricultural) activity is observed at different points are taken as the initial state in the considered model. The model allows us to trace the emergence of hierarchically organized activity, corresponding to higher levels of the hierarchy, ie, which implies the export of manufactured products to a wider area. While the symmetrical distribution ignores “history”, the above scenario considers it (at least minimally) as an interaction of “laws”, which in this case are purely economic in nature, and the “case” governing the sequence in which enterprises arise. The concept of bifurcation is successfully used to analyze the dynamics of economic development of the territorial system. In particular, a number of Western scientists have used it in the study of sudden and unpredictable violations of the continuous development of regions. In the development of cities the manifestation of this kind of behavior was investigated by the mission. Based on these studies, the fundamental changes in the world economy of the last millennium can be explained by a change in the structure of logistics systems, ie supply systems. In other words, large structural changes in the nature of production and location of production, the nature of labor, culture and public institutions are caused by slow, even changes in the relevant logistics networks.