МЕТОДИКА ПОБУДОВИ МОДЕЛІ ОПЕРАТИВНОГО ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ ПОКАЗНИКІВ СТАНУ РИНКУ ЕЛЕКТРИЧНОЇ ЕНЕРГІЇ (ЦІН ТА ОБСЯГІВ)

Abstract

The formulation and methods of solving the demand management problem (Demand Respose) in the electricity market are considered to ensure the tasks of operational planning of electricity consumption in order to increase the energy efficiency of the processes of electricity production, transmission and use. “Demand Respose” is defined as a change in the volume of electricity consumption by market’s end-users relative to their normal (basic) load, predicted for a certain time period in response to a decrease in the electricity price over time or to incentive payments aimed at reducing electricity consumption in periods of high electricity prices on the wholesale market or as a result of emergency situations caused by unforeseen sudden changes in weather conditions or emergency conditions, when the reliability of the system is at risk. The existing methods of demand management to reduce the level of electricity consumption during peak load hours are analyzed, with the determination of the need for demand management in real or close to real time. This necessitates the development and application of operational power consumption forecasting models. Based on the analysis of methods and means for building shortterm forecasting models, a methodology of researching time series and building a operational forecasting model of electricity market’s state indicators (prices, volumes) in a mode close to real time is proposed. The application of the methodology will allow determining formal signs, automating and simplifying the formation processes of a models system for forecasting indicator that adequate to the current state of market functioning with an acceptable assessment of the forecasting result accuracy. This will contribute to the creation of predictable prerequisites for decision-making regarding the participation of participants in the auction in the segments of the wholesale electricity market.