RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY: RISKS AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE

Abstract

The article examines the risks and trends in the national economy of Ukraine during 2020 – 2021, taking into account the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and global trends in socio-economic development. Based on the results of the analysis, the directions of recovery and development of the Ukrainian economy are determined, in particular against the background of a full-scale Russian invasion, its current and expected large-scale consequences, which is and remains a key and unforeseen risk. Other risks include: inflation expectations, public debt service and repayment, commodity-oriented economy, new waves of COVID-19 coronavirus, global shortage of certain product groups and other external factors due to restrained foreign investment activity and their focus on the domestic market. countries. It is substantiated that the existing model of open export-oriented raw materials economy for Ukraine, which turns the state into a so-called raw material appendage, has already lost any effectiveness. The new model of recovery and development of the national economy is an innovative economy aimed at both the recovery of domestic demand and active promotion in international markets not as a supplier of cheap raw materials, but a competitive producer of goods and services with high added value. In this context, the main vectors of recovery and development of the national economy are identified. First, the intensification and increase in public demand, including through the implementation of stimulating government programs and raising state social standards. Secondly, the digitalization of industrial relations in order to create innovative and technological products, expand investment processes in the economy. Third, diversification of foreign trade, including through the transition to international technical regulations, integration of regions into global value chains, reshoring of human capital.